5.21.2004

Dear Matt,

Dear Matt,

Great show last night. We saw 12 faces - and rocked 'em all!

I've been thinking about Chalabi and I have my theory now that I've had time to put the chronology in place.

I think Chab (for short) is (or was) planning a coup-less coup. He had shitloads of money and influence and his fingers in everything from banking to oil. Recently, he was in Iraq powwowing with various bigwigs there. Why? He knew his days with the Bushies were over. According to a couple of sites I've seen, he's been consolidating a power base with various Shia groups. I'm betting the plan was to get new backing from Iran and use the Iraqi shia as footsoldiers in case the very weak CPA went down the tubes...if not remove them himself!

Iran has an established nuclear program and may even have a bomb somewhere, or be close to finishing one. That would definitely hinger the US willingness to attack Iran and since we're already stretched to the limit in Iraq and Afghanistan, there would be no choice but for us to withdraw. Or submit to an even wider wider war. One that Chab knows the US public wouldn't support!

So basically, he gets the US to withdraw from Iraq, unites Iraq and Iran's shia and sits on the world's second largest oil reserve...one that's only going to get more valuable as the Saudi's dry up!

And with that kind of money, oil and power, he could easily influence the entire region!

Saddam's big mistake was in creating a secular state and making so many of his people hate him, he didn't really have the guts or smarts to be anything more than a nuisance. Chab on the other hand, has (or had) access to money and markets Saddam never drreamed of! And with the mullahs in pocket, it would become jihad if they were attacked...shia from everywhere would come to his defense.

The only variable I see in this mess is the timetable...did he foresee things coming apart so quickly? What if he and Sadr are in cahoots? An extra twist!!

It's a fuckin' Bond movie, dude!
But in real life and no orbiting space laser station!!

2 comments:

Anonymous said...

Only one big problem with that theory/movie script -- and one that a lot of people seem to forget when they think about Iran & Iraq -- Iranians are Persians & Iraqis are Arabs.

That may not seem like too big a deal, hell they live right next to each other after all, right? But the two groups are about as friendly with one another as the Indians & Pakistanis.

Even though they might have Shia counterparts across the border, the power of "You are not my people!" makes the kind of alliance you suggest pretty much impossible.

-Prof. Tim

stacius said...

Ah, but see the thing that would bind them together is their uh, "Shiite-ness."
And Saddam is gone.

Besides, I've been reading that I'm not too far off...check out www.talkingpointsmemo.com!